Bonus value calculator
What a bonus is worth in money once you account for the turnover it obliges, the contribution weighting, the game edge and the cap on what you can actually withdraw.
| Bonus credited | $200.00 |
|---|---|
| Wagering base | $200.00 (bonus only) |
| Turnover required | $8,000.00 |
| Effective turnover after contribution | $8,000.00 |
| Expected cost of clearing it | $320.00 |
| Most you could withdraw from the bonus | $200.00 |
| Expected value of the offer | -$120.00 |
Negative expectation of about $120.00. Clearing this bonus costs more in expected losses than the bonus is worth, which is the normal case at 40x.
The four numbers that decide a bonus
The headline percentage is the least important of them. What decides value is the wagering multiplier, what that multiplier applies to, what the games contribute, and what cap sits on withdrawable winnings. Change any one and the same headline offer moves from mildly positive to heavily negative.
The basis is the most commonly missed. A 40x requirement on the bonus alone, for a 200 unit bonus, is 8,000 units of turnover. The same 40x on bonus plus deposit is 16,000. The multiplier on the banner is identical and the obligation is double.
The cap is where headline percentages quietly disappear. One operator on this register advertises up to 590 percent while capping the payout at 1.2 times the accrued bonus. Both statements are true and only one of them is on the banner.
Why most bonuses are negative expectation
Running 8,000 units of turnover through a 96 percent game costs 320 units in expectation. Against a 200 unit bonus that is a negative expected value of 120 units before you account for contribution weighting, and weighting usually makes it worse.
This is not a scandal and it is not hidden, it is the design. A bonus is a marketing cost priced to be recovered through the turnover it compels, and the multiplier is the lever that sets the recovery. Offers are constructed to be attractive and to be worth less than they appear.
Positive-expectation bonuses do exist, typically at low multipliers, on low-edge games, with full contribution and no cap. They are uncommon, and they are usually restricted quickly once people work them. If the calculator returns a positive number, read the terms again before believing it.
What to check before accepting any offer
Find the binding document first. If the only place the percentage appears is a banner or a promotions page, there is nothing to enforce and the terms can be restated. Most operators on this register publish no binding bonus terms at all.
Then check the four numbers in order: multiplier, basis, contribution, cap. Then check expiry, because a 40x requirement with seven days to clear is a materially different obligation from the same figure with thirty.
Then check whether the operator will release the money at all, which is a separate question from whether the bonus was fair. Our entries record the withdrawal terms and the identity-check trigger alongside the bonus terms for exactly that reason.