Analysis topic
Photo: Austin Hervias / UnsplashPrediction markets
These pieces cover event contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket and the prediction products run by DraftKings, Fanatics and Robinhood.
They read regulator records, court filings, IRS guidance and each platform's published fees and terms, and treat the legal question separately from fees, taxes and withdrawals.
Every figure in these pieces traces to a document named at the foot of the page it appears on. Nothing here is a recommendation to gamble.
8 pieces, newest first
· 6 minWhat DraftKings Predictions, Fanatics Markets, Robinhood and Underdog prediction markets are, and which exchange is behind eachEach of these apps is a CFTC-registered futures commission merchant that sends trades to a separate CFTC exchange, not a licensed sportsbook. On 13 October 2026 Fanatics Markets listed 22 states and 4 territories with a minimum age of 21, Robinhood required 18 and blocked sports contracts for Maryland, Nevada and Michigan residents, and FanDuel Predicts said it is available in all 50 states. · 7 minIs Kalshi safe? What the CFTC orders, the member agreement and the rulebook say about your moneyKalshi runs a CFTC-designated exchange (since 2020) and an affiliated CFTC-registered clearing house (since 2024), and says customer deposits sit in segregated accounts. None of its documents read on 13 October 2026 claim SIPC or FDIC cover, its terms let it revoke access at its sole discretion, and outcome rulings by its own committee are final. · 6 minIs Polymarket legal in the US? What the CFTC, the states and Polymarket's own terms sayPolymarket runs two products. QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US is a CFTC-designated contract market, designated on 9 July 2025, open to verified US adults. The international site, polymarket.com, is run by a Panama-law company whose terms bar US persons from trading. Nevada sued all three Polymarket entities in January 2026, Illinois and Missouri ordered Polymarket US to stop offering sports contracts, and New York sued it on 24 September 2026. · 7 minKalshi taxes and Polymarket taxes, and what the IRS rules say about prediction market winningsKalshi's help centre lists four forms it may issue, 1099-INT, 1099-MISC, 1099-B and 1099-DA, and none of them is described as reporting event contract profits. As of 13 October 2026 the IRS has published no guidance on how event contracts are taxed, and the Treasury's 2026-2027 guidance plan does not list the topic. · 6 minPolymarket fees and Kalshi fees explained, with the formulas and worked examplesKalshi and both Polymarket products price taker fees on the same curve, rate x contracts x price x (1 - price), so fees peak at 50 cents. On 100 contracts at 50 cents Kalshi charges $1.75, Polymarket's international exchange $0 to $1.75 by category and Polymarket US $1.74. · 7 minPolymarket vs Kalshi, compared on regulator, who can use them, money rails, fees, settlement and state lawsuitsKalshi and Polymarket US are both CFTC-designated contract markets that trade in dollars; polymarket.com is a separate crypto platform, not CFTC-regulated, that blocks US trading. Both US exchanges face the same state gambling fights, including a New York suit against Polymarket US filed on 24 September 2026. · 7 minPolymarket withdrawal time, how to withdraw from Polymarket, and how Kalshi comparesOn polymarket.com a withdrawal is an onchain transfer that Polymarket's developer docs describe as instant and free. The separate Polymarket US app quotes 3 to 4 business days for debit card and ACH, and Kalshi quotes a few hours for debit card, a few business days for bank and 30 minutes for crypto. · 8 minIs Kalshi gambling? What the CFTC, the federal courts and the state regulators say about prediction marketsFederally, Kalshi is a CFTC-designated contract market, not a sportsbook. Several states say its sports contracts are unlicensed gambling. As of 9 October 2026 the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi in New Jersey, the Ninth and Sixth Circuits sided with Nevada, Ohio and Tennessee, and New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to decide.